Fort Lauderdale, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

798
FXUS62 KMFL 260507
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
107 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A mid to upper level low will meander over the Florida Peninsula
throughout most of today before it expands northwestward towards the
Gulf Coast states on Friday. At the surface, South Florida will
remain on the periphery of an area of high pressure centered off in
the western Atlantic today into Friday. This will allow for a light
southeasterly background wind flow to continue which will aid in
deep tropical moisture advection taking place during this time
frame. The presence of the mid level low will help to keep colder
air in place aloft, (500mb temps of -9 to -10C). This in combination
with modest mid level lapse rates as well as sufficient instability,
(CAPE values of 1500-2100 J/kg), could allow for a few strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms to develop especially this
afternoon.

With enhanced moisture continuing to push into the region, scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once again this
morning into the early afternoon hours over the Atlantic waters as
well as the east coast metro areas. These showers and storms will
gradually push towards the interior and west heading towards the mid
to late afternoon hours before gradually diminishing this evening.
With a very light steering flow in place, convection movement will
be slow and will follow the movement of mesoscale features such as
sea breeze boundaries as well as thunderstorm outflow boundaries.
The strongest thunderstorms will tend to develop this afternoon
during peak diurnal heating where where mesoscale boundary
interactions occur across the interior sections. Slow moving
thunderstorms or multiple rounds of strong thunderstorms developing
over the same areas could lead to the potential for localized
flooding as plenty of deep tropical moisture will allow for enhanced
rainfall rates with the stronger activity. High temperatures this
afternoon will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

While the mid level low will drift a bit further away from the
region on Friday, it will still remain close enough to keep cooler
air aloft in place as 500mb temperatures will range between -8 and -
9C through a good portion of the day. One significant factor that
will need to be watched is a plume of Saharan Dust currently off to
the southeast in the Bahamas extending into the Carribean Sea. This
plume is anticipated to arrive over the region on Friday. While
Saharan dust usually acts as a limiting factor for convection, with
additional moisture already in place, this feature may not impact
the coverage of convection on Friday. This Saharan dust, however,
may allow for more of the thunderstorms to become strong to
marginally severe by introducing just enough drier air in the mid
levels to support strong gusty winds as DCAPE values could be
elevated. With very light steering flow in place, the potential for
slow moving storms and high rainfall rates could lead to localized
flooding especially across the poor drainage areas once again. High
temperatures on Friday will generally range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The weather pattern across South Florida looks to remain unsettled
heading into the upcoming weekend and even into early next week. The
mid level level low will remain nearly stationary over the Southeast
heading into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, high pressure
will remain centered off in the western Atlantic and South Florida
will remain on the western periphery of this feature. With the
synoptic wind flow remaining light out of the southeast, this will
allow for the surface winds to be mainly sea breeze driven during
this time. At the same time, the plume of Saharan Dust will remain
intact throughout most of the upcoming weekend across the region.
With the mid level low remaining parked over the Southeast, it will
be close enough to provide an extra source of lift as it will keep
cooler temperatures aloft in place. While convection development
will continue to be diurnally driven by the sea breezes, coverage
will likely continue to remain rather high as storms develop over
the Atlantic waters and east coast during the morning and early
afternoon hours before shifting towards the interior for the rest of
the afternoon and evening hours. Strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms will also be possible during the first half of the
weekend containing heavy downpours and gusty winds.

Heading towards the second half of the weekend and into early
next week, the latest guidance suite continues to remain in
relatively good agreement with pushing another mid level low
westward from the Bahamas over the Florida Peninsula during this
time frame. This will act as a reinforcing source of moisture and
will keep enhanced shower and thunderstorm chances in place during
this time frame with the added lift and instability continuing as
well. While the diurnal summertime convective pattern will generally
remain intact, there will be higher chances and higher coverage of
showers and thunderstorms each day during this time frame. Strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms will continue to remain possible
especially during the afternoon and evening hours with the highest
chances remaining over the interior where sea breeze and
thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. A rather light steering
flow will remain in place as well which will keep the potential for
slow moving storms in place. Slow moving storms with heavy downpours
will continue to keep the potential for localized flooding in place
especially in the poor drainage areas as well as areas that will be
saturated from previous heavy downpours.

High temperatures over the weekend and into early next week will
remain near climatological normals for this time of year as they
will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

SCT showers and thunderstorms this morning becoming more numerous
late morning into the afternoon which may result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds. Light SE winds this morning
becoming 10-15 kts this afternoon, with a westerly Gulf breeze
expected at APF this afternoon. MVFR ceilings expected to prevail
with some occasional IFR possible during heavy showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters through the rest of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will
remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
Locally higher winds and seas could create potentially hazardous
conditions in and around showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  80  91  79 /  80  30  50  20
West Kendall     89  75  91  75 /  70  30  50  20
Opa-Locka        91  80  92  79 /  80  30  50  10
Homestead        89  79  90  79 /  80  30  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  79  90  79 /  80  30  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  88  79  90  79 /  80  30  50  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  94  81 /  80  30  50  20
West Palm Beach  89  78  91  77 /  80  30  60  20
Boca Raton       91  78  92  78 /  80  30  50  20
Naples           90  74  91  75 /  80  50  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF